TOP 25 takeaways about future of Economy and Markets

  1. Double whammy of higher rates & b/s tightening
  2. Will be astonished if S&P-50 doesn’t fall by atleast 30% from peak
  3. After a 30% fall S&P-500, market will become very receptive to any hints about Fed changing stance
  4. A > than 30% fall would need markets to stay down & then big retail outflows
  5. Key question is if Fed’s changes language later this yr
  6. Huge political pressure from Washington on Fed
  7. All opinion polls in US show inflation No.1 issue for Americans
  8. For 1st time in > 40 yrs, we have pressure from political establishment on Fed
  9. U.S. consumer confidence has fallen dramatically, could be mix of inflation & stocks falling
  10. Cash buffers with U.S. consumers built up during pandemic running thin now, could be losses in stocks or crypto
  11. U.S. CPI will keep inflation story bubbling
  12. May CPI will make the market assume that the next hike will be 50 bps
  13. Problem is that the Fed is so far behind the curve, that they need to impose real rates now & they are nowhere close
  14. FII selling in India @ historic highs
  15. If people start losing money on 1 yr, see risk to retail inflows
  16. India a great story with 10 yr view
  17. Property mkt up, evidence of capex pick-up
  18. A sideways year, would be a good outcome for India
  19. RBI is behind the curve, but nowhere as far behind the curve as the Fed
  20. Base case is India corrects further,
    supports (charts) at 14,000-14,500
  21. Don’t necessarily have to go there if retail inflows hold up, mkt trades sideways & valn adjust lower
  22. India is expensive, but U.S. valuations way more expensive (relative to sales)
  23. India a domestic demand driven story
  24. Risk is if monetary tightening delays capex pick-up
  25. History suggests that Indian market is heavily influenced by Wall St

For Information Only

Team- Intellex Strategic Consulting Pvt Ltd,,

Categories: BLOG


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